The biggest upsets in international football
By pre-match ratings, the biggest upset since 1950 is Luxembourg’s 2–1 win over Switzerland on 10 September 2008, when Luxembourg had a rating-based win expectancy of 0.6%.
| # | Match | Score | Competition | Date | Winner’s chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Switzerlandv LuxembourgHead-to-head | 1–2 | World Cup qualifying | 10 Sept 2008 | 0.6% |
| 2 |  South KoreavLuxembourg | 2–3 | Friendly | 9 May 1980 | 1.3% |
| 3 |  Greecev Faroe IslandsHead-to-head | 0–1 | Euro qualifying | 14 Nov 2014 | 2.3% |
| 4 |  BelarusvLuxembourgHead-to-head | 0–1 | Euro qualifying | 13 Oct 2007 | 2.4% |
| 5 |  Spainv GeorgiaHead-to-head | 0–1 | Friendly | 7 Jun 2016 | 2.5% |
| 6 |  Bahrainv Somalia | 1–2 | Friendly | 17 Nov 2025 | 2.8% |
| 7 |  Norwayv LatviaHead-to-head | 1–3 | Euro qualifying | 6 Sept 1998 | 3.1% |
| 8 |  Egyptv Central African Republic | 2–3 | Africa Cup of Nations qualifying | 15 Jun 2012 | 3.2% |
| 9 |  Andorrav HungaryHead-to-head | 1–0 | World Cup qualifying | 9 Jun 2017 | 3.5% |
| 10 |  Thailandv TaiwanHead-to-head | 0–1 | Friendly | 14 Dec 2022 | 3.7% |
| 11 |  Netherlandsv BulgariaHead-to-head | 1–2 | Friendly | 26 May 2012 | 3.8% |
| 12 |  Englandv IcelandHead-to-head | 0–1 | Friendly | 7 Jun 2024 | 3.8% |
| 13 |  Maltav UkraineHead-to-head | 1–0 | Friendly | 6 Jun 2017 | 4.0% |
| 14 |  Colombiav UruguayHead-to-head | 1–0 | Copa América | 17 Mar 1957 | 4.4% |
| 15 |  Cameroonv BrazilHead-to-head | 1–0 | World Cup | 2 Dec 2022 | 4.4% |
| 16 |  Myanmarv SingaporeHead-to-head | 0–1 | Merdeka Tournament | 7 Aug 1971 | 4.5% |
| 17 |  Timor-Lestev PhilippinesHead-to-head | 1–0 | CTFA International Tournament | 5 Dec 2017 | 4.5% |
| 18 |  Bosniav CyprusHead-to-head | 1–2 | Euro qualifying | 9 Sept 2014 | 4.6% |
| 19 |  Portugalv AlbaniaHead-to-head | 0–1 | Euro qualifying | 7 Sept 2014 | 4.6% |
| 20 |  Bruneiv Vanuatu | 3–2 | FIFA Series | 26 Mar 2024 | 4.7% |
| 21 | Somaliav ZimbabweHead-to-head | 1–0 | World Cup qualifying | 5 Sept 2019 | 4.8% |
| 22 |  TunisiavMaltaHead-to-head | 0–1 | Friendly | 24 Oct 1981 | 4.9% |
| 23 |  DenmarkvBosniaHead-to-head | 0–2 | Euro qualifying | 2 Apr 2003 | 4.9% |
| 24 |  Panamav NicaraguaHead-to-head | 0–1 | UNCAF Cup | 21 Feb 2003 | 4.9% |
| 25 |  Germanyv North Macedonia | 1–2 | World Cup qualifying | 31 Mar 2021 | 5.1% |
| 26 |  Francev FinlandHead-to-head | 0–2 | Friendly | 11 Nov 2020 | 5.1% |
| 27 | Brazilv ParaguayHead-to-head | 0–2 | Copa América | 17 Mar 1963 | 5.2% |
| 28 |  ItalyvNorth MacedoniaHead-to-head | 0–1 | World Cup qualifying | 24 Mar 2022 | 5.3% |
| 29 | GreecevCyprusHead-to-head | 2–3 | Friendly | 2 Sept 1992 | 5.3% |
| 30 | ItalyvSwitzerlandHead-to-head | 0–1 | Friendly | 27 Oct 1982 | 5.4% |
Win expectancy comes from the TFN Elo rating, which counts a draw as half a win. Both teams must have played at least 30 internationals before the match. How the rating works.
Men’s internationals between FIFA members and historic national sides, through 6 October 2026. Scores include extra time but not penalty shootouts. Methodology.